Wednesday, February 29, 2012

State of the NBA: Midseason Edition



The second half of the NBA is upon us. After a turbulent and very quick first half full of surprises, it is time for teams to buckle down and fight for playoff seeding. Teams like the Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, and Oklahoma City Thunder are living up to their expectations as they’ve been holding the top three seeds in the entire league throughout the first half of the season. Teams like the Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers, Los Angeles Clippers, and San Antonio Spurs are all pleasant surprises for various reasons. They are filling up the 4-6 seeds in both conferences with superb and somewhat unexpected success. And then you have legendary teams like the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics who seem to be out of the NBA title race and just fighting for a playoff spot now with overall mediocre play. Add the Orlando Magic, Dallas Mavericks, Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks who aren’t playing up to their expected level of play. Will things remain the same through the second half and into the playoffs? I highly doubt it.

Let’s look at some of the biggest storylines from the first 30 or so games of this shortened 66 game season:

The Jeremy Lin(derella) Story
Jeremy Lin has become more than a Harvard graduate turned NBA star. He has become a brand that the NBA and the Knicks are cashing in on all over the world. In that sense, the Lin story is a success. However, does he have enough to lead New York to becoming an elite team? The story going into All Star Weekend was whether or not Lin can coexist with Carmelo Anthony, who had been out for a couple weeks due to injury. Add to that the fact that the Knicks signed another ball handler in J.R. Smith. How would the Knicks have an efficient way to run the offense with three primary ball handlers/play callers? In the few games we saw right before All Star Weekend, we saw that everyone on the Knicks is willing to be unselfish in order to get a win. In Mike D’Antoni ‘s offense, there is a need to have a point guard that has extremely good court vision and great passing skills (see: Steve Nash). He has this in Jeremy Lin. And I believe fully that the Knicks will find a way to make this system work with all the playmakers and talent they have on their squad. Lin must work on some weaknesses if he wants to stay relevant in the playoffs and into next year though. His defense must improve greatly if he ever wants to be mentioned in the same breath as Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo or Deron Williams. He also needs to work on his left hand (pause). Defensive teams like Boston, Chicago, and Miami will review footage and the fact that Lin can’t go to his left will be glaring at them through the film. We’ll see if the Knicks can carry on the wave of momentum they had in the last 10 or so games before All Star weekend into the playoffs.

The Dwight Dilemma
The Dwight situation has taken more twists and turns than the highway near Chattanooga on my road trip to Florida (that’s a lotta twists and turns for those that don’t know). He’s played the good guy. He’s played the bad guy. He’s played the indifferent, “it’s part of the business,” guy. And he’s still in Orlando. The trade deadline is looming in front of our faces. March 15th. Will the Magic make a move? Will they give up the face of their team and start rebuilding? I’ve been saying this from the beginning and I’ll say it again: they have to trade Dwight. There was that stretch of games a few weeks ago in which the Magic were getting absolutely destroyed in. It was as if they had lost all passion for the game of basketball. I thought for sure Dwight would be traded that week. Didn’t happen. The Magic need to make it happen. I think Dwight will walk when the season’s over and it makes no sense for the Magic to lose him for nothing. They haven’t been able to bring in players to compliment Dwight and take them to an elite level, so it’s time that they start the rebuilding process. Rumors have been swirling forever as to where Dwight might end up. The Lakers, Bulls, Mavericks, and Nets are among the possible destinations for Superman. I guess this will just be something we have to wait and see for an answer.

The MVP Race
The MVP race is heating up again with Kevin Durant and LeBron James both making strong cases for the honor. Kobe Bryant, Kevin Love, Dirk Nowitzki, Russell Westbrook and the reigning MVP Derrick Rose are also making their own cases to be crowned MVP of the league. Don't expect Rose to repeat as MVP this year. James and Durant are making far better cases by putting up monster numbers every night and one of these two should end up being the MVP when the season is over. My pick? I say All Star Game MVP Kevin Durant is long overdue for the title.

The Playoff Picture
Now this is the part I know I'm looking forward to most. The playoffs. I simply cannot wait. For the East, I'm predicting a rematch between Miami and Chicago in the Conference Finals. Unless something drastic happens, these two will make up the top two seeds to be crowned Beasts of the East. Miami will be more determined than ever to shake their struggles in the playoffs and finally win a ring. But in the end, the Bulls will overcome their struggles, have all their players, and come out focused to beat the Heat in an epic series stretching 7 games (CHICAGO BIAS FTW!). Indiana, New York, Philadelphia, and Atlanta will take the 3-6 seeds, respectively. While Boston and Orlando will round out the last of the two remaining seeds.

Now, the West. As it is every year, this Conference is always difficult to determine seeding. The #1 seed all the way down to the 10th or 11th seed are all playoff teams. But there are only 8 spots. Expect Oklahoma City to take the top seed and meet the raining champs, Dallas, in the Western Conference Finals. I won't even try to determine seeding in the West. I will tell you that in addition to the Thunder and Mavericks, the Lakers, Clippers, Spurs, Nuggets, Blazers and Grizzlies will also make the playoffs.

My Finals Prediction: The Chicago Bulls will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Finals. This matchup will finally usher in a new era of the NBA as the legendary teams like the Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs will take a back seat to the young teams. The Bulls, as I mentioned above, will use their experience, coaching, chemistry and finesse to overcome a riled and unorganized Miami team. The Thunder will outrun the Dallas Mavericks and use their athleticism to take them to the biggest stage in the NBA. Bulls. Thunder. Who will come out on top..? Heh.

Bulls all day, baby

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